Archive

Thailand Policy Rate 2.5% (consensus 2.5%) in Feb-24

• The Bank of Thailand held the Policy Rate at 2.5%, a decision reflecting the Committee's effort to support economic growth and maintain price stability in a context of subdued inflation.
• Structural challenges, including competitiveness issues and the need for reforms, coupled with a slower-than-expected recovery in exports and tourism, underscore the economy's fragility and the nuanced approach needed in monetary policy deliberation.
• The MPC acknowledges the resilience of the financial system and the stability of financial conditions, emphasizing the role of sustained domestic demand in counteracting external pressures, with a commitment to adjusting policy in response to evolving growth and inflation outlooks.

Thailand CPI Inflation -1.11% y-o-y (consensus -0.8%) in Jan-24

- Thailand's CPI inflation for January 2024 recorded a year-on-year decrease of 1.11%, falling below the market consensus of -0.8%.
- The core CPI inflation, excluding volatile items, rose by only 0.52% year-on-year in January 2024, albeit closer to expectations of 0.57%.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.83% y-o-y (consensus -0.3%) in Dec-23

- Thailand's CPI inflation rate in December 2023 was -0.83% on a year-on-year basis, much lower than the consensus forecast of -0.3%, reflecting a deflationary trend.
- The core CPI inflation rate for the same period was unsurprising at 0.58%, so the downside news was driven by declines in volatile food and energy prices.

Thailand CPI Inflation -0.44% y-o-y (consensus -0.3%) in Nov-23

- Thailand's CPI inflation rate for November 2023 declined by 0.44% year-on-year, falling further than market expectations of a 0.3% decrease.
- This marks the lowest growth since February 2021 and is significantly below both the one-year average (2.25pp below) and the long-run average (3.40pp below).