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Canada CPI Inflation 2.69% y-o-y (consensus 2.7%) in Apr-24

- Canada's CPI inflation in April 2024 resumed its trend decline to 2.69% year-on-year, broadly as the consensus expected.
- The core CPI, which excludes volatile components, dropped below target by printing at 1.6% year-on-year in April 2024, suggesting moderate underlying inflation.

Canada Unemployment Rate 6.1% (consensus 6.2%) in Apr-24

- Canada's unemployment rate remained steady at 6.1% in Apr-24, contrary to consensus expectations for another rise to 6.2%.
- The unemployment rate has been trending higher over the past year, but the employment level surged by 90.4k in April.

Canada CPI Inflation 2.9% y-o-y (consensus 2.9%) in Mar-24

- Canada's annual CPI inflation rate in March 2024 crept up to 2.9%, in line with market expectations, returning to the highest growth since December 2023.
- However, disinflation has left the current rate 0.42 percentage points below the one-year average while core measures kept slowing and to a surprising extent.

Canada Policy Interest Rate 5.0% (consensus 5.0%) in Apr-24

• The Bank of Canada's maintenance of the policy interest rate at 5% reflects its confidence in the ongoing effectiveness of monetary policy in controlling inflation amid an environment of gradually strengthening economic growth and easing inflationary pressures.
• With an upward revision in global and domestic growth forecasts and a notable easing in inflation, the Bank anticipates solid GDP growth this year and a continued approach towards the 2% inflation target, closely monitoring persistent inflationary pressures, especially in shelter costs and services.
• The Bank's future decisions on the policy interest rate will be heavily influenced by sustained evidence of core inflation easing, alongside a careful assessment of economic risks, including global tensions, housing market dynamics, and wage-productivity balances, underscoring a commitment to not prematurely ease monetary policy.