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Philippines CPI Inflation 3.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.0%) in Dec-23

- Philippines CPI inflation declined to 3.9% year-on-year in December 2023, slightly below the consensus estimate of 4.0%, marking the lowest growth since February 2022.
- Core inflation remains slightly higher, highlighting persistent inflationary pressures in non-food and non-energy sectors.

Philippines Policy Rate 6.5% (consensus 6.5%) in Dec-23

• The BSP’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 6.5%, in line with consensus forecasts, is driven by a slight moderation in inflation forecasts and anchored expectations, reflecting an effective current policy stance in managing inflation risks.
• The Monetary Board's focus on sustaining economic growth, alongside a vigilant approach to inflation, underscores the balance between supporting economic resilience and maintaining price stability.
• The BSP’s readiness to adjust monetary policy settings in the future, depending on economic data and conditions, demonstrates a flexible and adaptive policy approach, ensuring responsiveness to both inflationary pressures and growth dynamics.

Philippines CPI Inflation 4.1% y-o-y (consensus 4.3) in Nov-23

- November 2023 CPI inflation in the Philippines stood at 4.1% year-on-year, 0.2pp below the consensus estimate, reaching the lowest rate since March 2022.
- Core inflation in November 2023 slowed to 4.7% year-on-year, indicating a similarly surprising moderation in inflation.

Philippines Policy Rate 6.5% (consensus 6.5) in Nov-23

• The BSP’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 6.5% reflects a strategic pause, balancing the need to control inflation against potential over-tightening risks, demonstrating a calibrated approach to monetary policy effectiveness.
• Acknowledging the balance of risks, predominantly skewed towards the upside due to various external and domestic factors, the BSP’s policy stance is characterized by a dynamic and responsive approach to evolving economic conditions.
• Commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy settings until inflation trends downward, coupled with the readiness for further adjustments based on incoming data, underscores a flexible yet disciplined focus on price stability and economic growth.