Archive

May 22, 2025
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PMI Goods Vibes

  • Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.
  • The UK was alone in weakening, but it is more susceptible to bad vibes, showing more noise than signal. April’s spurious lows were revised away and may repeat or rebound.
  • Transmission to unemployment also isn’t happening, leaving little case for easing unless recessionary pressures build, and the PMIs still hawkishly suggest that isn’t the case.

By Philip Rush

May 20, 2025
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Trump Doctrine: All Talk And No Trousers

  • Despite the frenetic activity in the international arena that we have seen from the US in recent weeks, whether in trade or diplomacy, showmanship continues to trump substance, thereby posing real risks for policymakers and investors alike.

By Alastair Newton

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