- Bahrain's CPI inflation recorded a second monthly decline in December 2023, this time of -0.2%.
- This negative change is less severe than in November 2023, but remains lower than the one-year average, indicating a relatively subdued price level in Bahrain.
- With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.
By Alastair Newton
- Bahrain's CPI inflation rate in November 2023 decreased by 0.5% on a month-on-month basis, marking the lowest since May 2023.
- The November inflation rate was 0.44 percentage points below the 1-year average, indicating a significant deviation from a norm that is already too disinflationary.
- Bahrain's M2 Money Supply recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8% in October 2023, marking the highest expansion since June 2023.
- Despite the positive growth, the current rate falls 1.42 percentage points below the one-year average and lags behind the long-run average by 0.76pp.