Archive

Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

• The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

Bahrain CPI Inflation 0.6% m-o-m in Jan-24

- Bahrain's CPI inflation rate experienced a significant increase of 0.6% in January 2024, marking the highest growth since June 2023.
- The January 2024 inflation rate exceeded the one-year average by 0.53 percentage points, signaling a departure from typical inflationary behaviour.

Bahrain CPI Inflation -0.2% m-o-m in Dec-23

- Bahrain's CPI inflation recorded a second monthly decline in December 2023, this time of -0.2%.
- This negative change is less severe than in November 2023, but remains lower than the one-year average, indicating a relatively subdued price level in Bahrain.

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton