February 20, 2024

Canada CPI Inflation 2.86% y-o-y (consensus 3.3%) in Jan-24

- Canada's CPI inflation grew by 2.86% on a year-on-year basis in January 2024, falling far short of the consensus forecast of 3.3%. It represents the lowest growth rate since June 2023.
- Core inflation measures were also weaker than expected, but only by about 0.2pp, leaving half of the downside news as non-core.

January 24, 2024

Bank of Canada (consensus 5%) in Jan-24

  • The Bank of Canada's no-change decision aligns with the economic consensus amid a global economic slowdown and domestic stagnation, with growth in Canada expected to remain subdued into early 2024.
  • Despite CPI inflation easing, concerns over persistent shelter cost inflation and lack of significant declines in core inflation measures underpin the Bank's decision to maintain the policy rate at 5%.
  • The Bank's policy stance is shaped by the need to balance demand and supply, with a close watch on inflation expectations and wage trends, indicating a readiness to adjust the policy rate if inflationary pressures do not subside as anticipated.

January 16, 2024

Canada CPI Inflation 3.4% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Dec-23

- Canada's annual CPI inflation rate increased to 3.4% in December 2023, aligning with market expectations, but remains moderate relative to recent averages.
- Although core inflation slowed further, the median and trimmed mean measures surprised to the upside by 0.2pp.

December 19, 2023

Canada CPI Inflation 3.12% y-o-y (consensus 2.9) in Nov-23

- Canada's CPI inflation rate for November 2023 exceeded expectations, remaining at 3.12% compared to the consensus forecast for a slowing to 2.9%.
- The annual inflation rate remains below the one-year average, indicating a disinflationary environment, but core measures are too high and surprisingly resilient.