Archive

EU Politics: A Tale Of Three Cities

(With apologies to Charles Dickens)

• Faced with, at best, floundering governance in the short- to medium-term, at least in both Berlin and Paris, investors should be doubly concerned at the distinct possibility that the incoming College of European Commissioners will be significantly weaker than the outgoing one.

By Alastair Newton

France: Back To The Future?

• Contrary to all the opinion polls, the ‘cordon sanitaire’ has held once again in France, keeping Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National out of any plausible government for now at least. But the cost of this is high in both the short- and medium-term.

By Alastair Newton

Sovereign Debt: China In A Bull Shop

• China’s belated baulking at an IMF-approved deal between Zambia and its Eurobond creditors has put the whole future of the Common Framework in doubt and places many developing countries in even more dire economic straits.

By Alastair Newton

France Unemployment Rate 7.4% (consensus 7.3%) in Q3-23

- France's unemployment rate in Q3-23 stands at 7.4%, rising slightly beyond the 7.3% consensus estimate and indicating a weakening labour market.
- This is the highest unemployment rate since Q3-21 and 0.18 percentage points above the average of the past year, but it remains 0.1pp below the long-run average.