Archive

November 27, 2025
KR.png

BOK: Rate Cut Hopes Damped by Stickier Inflation

  • The BOK maintained 2.5% rates as the consensus expected. Upward inflation revisions to 2.1% (2025) and 2.1% (2026) signal stronger price persistence than previously forecast, increasing rate-cut caution.
  • Policy remains data-dependent with the "possibility" of cuts only after material disinflationary evidence emerges. Financial stability risks around housing and household debt levels now drive policy constraints more than growth concerns.
  • Exchange rate depreciation and sticky service inflation create headwinds against achieving the 2% target, likely keeping rates elevated through early 2026 despite modest growth recovery expectations of 1.8%.
November 26, 2025
NZ.png

RBNZ Eases While Eyeing Medium-Term Inflation

  • The RBNZ surprised some economists by lowering the OCR 25bps to 2.25%, prioritising support for a hesitant economic recovery.
  • The policy outlook will hinge on real-time inflation, labour, and external data, with macro risks remaining broadly balanced.
  • Cautious, flexible monetary policy is expected, with future interest rate moves highly data-dependent and state-contingent.
November 19, 2025
ID.png

Indonesia Holds Rates as External Headwinds Intensify

  • Bank Indonesia paused rate cuts at 4.75%, shifting focus from growth to rupiah stability. This outcome was no surprise to the consensus as external risks intensified.​
  • Further easing depends on rupiah stabilisation, not inflation alone. Elevated term premia and expanded FX operations reflect caution.​
  • Macroprudential incentives and FX measures aim to support growth while monitoring weak credit transmission after previous rate cuts.
November 06, 2025
NO.png

Inflation Persistence Constrains Norges Bank

  • The Norges Bank held rates at 4% as expected. Core inflation at 3% constrains further cuts despite emerging economic slack in the coming year.
  • Governor Bache stressed the bank is "not in a hurry" to cut rates, projecting one reduction annually through 2028. Cuts depend on disinflation progressing as forecast.
  • December's new forecasts will be critical—faster disinflation or sharper labour market weakness could accelerate cuts, while persistent inflation could keep rates higher for longer.

By country