Archive

June 18, 2025
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Brazil: 25bp Rate Hike To 15% (Consensus 14.75%) in Jun-25

  • Brazil's Copom surprised markets by raising the Selic rate to 15.00%, citing persistent inflation and deanchored expectations, contrary to the consensus forecast for a pause.
  • The decision reflects ongoing concern over resilient domestic demand, robust labour markets, and external uncertainties, with inflation expectations for 2025 and 2026 remaining above target.
  • Future policy will likely see rates held at restrictive levels for a prolonged period, with further hikes possible if inflation risks intensify or expectations fail to converge, while any easing is contingent on clear evidence of disinflation and fiscal discipline.
June 18, 2025
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
  • The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
  • Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.
June 17, 2025
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Chile: Policy Rate Held At 5.0% (Consensus 5.0%) in Jun-25

  • The Central Bank of Chile unanimously held the policy rate at 5% in June 2025, in line with consensus expectations, citing persistent global uncertainties and a favourable domestic inflation trend.
  • Inflation has moderated more than anticipated, with headline and core CPI easing and medium-term expectations anchored at 3%, yet inflation remains above the target range for a seventeenth consecutive month.
  • The outlook for future rate decisions will hinge on the evolution of external risks—primarily geopolitical and trade tensions—and the pace of inflation convergence, with the Board signalling a gradual move towards neutral rates if baseline projections hold.
June 17, 2025
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Japan: Policy Rate Held At 0.5% (Consensus 0.5%) in Jun-25

  • The Bank of Japan unanimously held its policy rate at 0.5%, in line with consensus forecasts, reflecting a cautious stance amid moderate economic recovery and subdued underlying inflation.
  • The Board announced a gradual reduction in JGB purchases, with a detailed schedule through March 2027, while retaining flexibility to respond to market volatility and planning an interim review in June 2026.
  • The outlook for future interest rate increases remains contingent on sustained improvements in underlying inflation and wage growth, with significant attention to global economic risks and domestic demand conditions.

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