Archive

April 03, 2025
EZ.png

ECB Meeting Accounts - March 2025

  • In the accounts for its March meeting, the ECB cited a broadly intact disinflation path and moderating wage pressures, but emphasised that rising trade and fiscal uncertainties diminish the reliability of the baseline outlook.
  • While most inflation indicators point to a sustained return to target, sticky services inflation and tight labour markets present upside risks, necessitating a cautious approach to future rate cuts.
  • With credit conditions easing and policy rates approaching estimated neutral levels, the ECB acknowledged that monetary policy is becoming less restrictive and refrained from signalling further easing.
April 01, 2025
AU.png

Australia: Policy Rate Held At 4.1% (Consensus 4.1%) in Apr-25

  • The RBA held the cash rate at 4.10%, in line with expectations, citing ongoing but uncertain progress in reducing underlying inflation towards the 2–3% target range.
  • Labour market conditions remain tight despite a February employment decline, with low underutilisation and elevated unit labour costs continuing to present inflationary risks.
  • Global uncertainties, including new US tariffs and geopolitical tensions, could dampen global activity and further complicate the inflation outlook, reinforcing the RBA’s cautious and data-dependent stance.
March 31, 2025
CO.png

Colombia: Policy Rate Held At 9.5% (Consensus 9.25%) in Mar-25

  • Banco de la República held the policy rate steady at 9.5%, surprising consensus expectations for a 25bp cut, as most board members prioritised caution amid rising inflation and external uncertainty.
  • Headline inflation rose slightly to 5.3% in February, with persistent pressures in regulated and food prices, while inflation expectations remained above target across market-based and survey measures.
  • With the labour market exhibiting strength, and fiscal and global risks still elevated, the central bank has delayed further rate cuts until more conclusive data becomes available.
March 27, 2025
NO.png

Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
  • Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
  • The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.

By country