Archive

October 09, 2025
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Peru Holds Rates Near Neutral at 4.25%

  • Peru held rates at 4.25% as expected, near its neutral level, with inflation at 1.4% approaching the target midpoint by year-end.
  • Policy pause reflects balanced risks: benign domestic inflation vs global trade restrictions weighing on medium-term growth outlook.
  • Future moves depend on inflation drivers, but immediate easing is unlikely given the proximity to the 2% neutral real rate estimate.
September 11, 2025
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Peru Nears Neutral as Rates Cut to 4.25%

  • BCRP cut rates by 25bp to 4.25%, approaching neutral policy as August inflation fell to 1.1% YoY, the lowest since 2018, below consensus expectations.
  • The real ex-ante rate is now 2.07%, very close to the 2% neutral estimate, suggesting limited scope for further easing without overstimulating the economy.
  • Global trade tensions create a medium-term downward bias for growth outlook, with a data-dependent approach maintained for future policy adjustments.
August 14, 2025
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Peru: Cuts Paused As Space Squeezed

  • Peru's central bank (BCRP) held rates at 4.5% as expected, maintaining a cautious stance despite well-anchored inflation at 1.7% within the target range.
  • Global trade uncertainty weighs on the outlook, but future cuts are conditional on inflation data and external conditions affecting the economy.
  • The real rate is slightly above neutral, providing limited scope to ease, with a terminal rate around 4.0-4.25% reached by early 2026.
December 12, 2024
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Peru: Policy Rate Held At 5.0% (Consensus 5.0%) in Dec-24

  • Peru's central bank (BCRP) held the reference rate at 5.00%, meeting consensus expectations, as inflation and core inflation remained within the target range despite a base effect-driven rise in year-on-year rates.
  • Inflation expectations were stable at slightly below 2.5%, with global inflation declining more slowly and geopolitical and trade risks adding uncertainty to the outlook.
  • Future monetary policy will depend on incoming data, particularly trends in core inflation, inflation expectations, and economic activity, with the BCRP maintaining a vigilant, data-dependent approach to ensure inflation stability.

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