Archive

April 24, 2025
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DOGE Didn’t Dent Resilience

  • President Trump is restructuring the US state through tariff funding and efficiency savings. The former dominates focus, but we also see no evidence of problematic cuts.
  • Jobless claims are low and stable, including among federal workers and in states with the highest federal workforce shares. Government job openings haven’t even fallen.
  • DOGE cuts are often multi-year and in grants to others. It may have helped the deficit, and the efficiency is fundamentally desirable. Concerns about it still seem overblown.

By Philip Rush

April 23, 2025
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Global Manufacturers Shrug Off Tariffs

  • Volatile and destructive US trade policy has roiled markets and confidence, but April's flash PMI data suggests the sector isn’t suffering significantly more than before.
  • The average held steady while the US balance increased. Weakness concentrated in the UK, where experience of the past decade suggests it is more distorted by bad vibes.
  • Unemployment data are a more reliable signal, albeit lagging, and these also remain remarkably resilient. Rate cuts rely on Trump breaking the economy, but lack evidence.

By Philip Rush

April 22, 2025
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Prisoner's Dilemma For Ukraine

  • Ukraine cannot avoid painful settlements as the US and Russia pull its resources apart. Europe has no veto over US taxpayers and can’t block all attempts to loosen sanctions.
  • Further progress to peace is likely over the next few months. If the US walks away from talks, it is most likely dropping support too, postponing peace while Russia gains more.
  • Intensifying support would raise risks along a hard-fought market-negative path. Risks will also remain more elevated in Korea after Ukraine’s misguided incursion into Russia.

By Philip Rush

April 14, 2025
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US Tariffs: Of Words And Bonds

  • Although Donald Trump’s U-turn may allow time for the conclusion of bilateral trade negotiations with some US partners, neither China nor the EU is likely to strike an agreement imminently, especially now that America’s vulnerability to the bond market has become all too clear.

By Alastair Newton

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