Archive

August 26, 2025
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Russia/Ukraine: What Now?

  • A week after the event, it is clear that the Trump/Putin summit presented the latter with a big win at little, if any, cost.
  • Donald Trump is unlikely to come up with anything that will bring Mr Putin to the negotiating table in good faith once his latest two-week ‘deadline’ expires.
  • Furthermore, Mr Trump remains philosophically inclined to favour Russia, a leaning that probably poses a greater risk to Kyiv than Mr Putin himself does.

By Alastair Newton

August 19, 2025
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EA: Re-Balance Of Payments

  • An end to the Euro’s bullish trend is now revealed to have coincided with a reversal of two critical supports. Frontloaded export levels have normalised without payback.
  • International portfolio investment into the EA during April fully unwound between May and June, revealing no investor appetite to hold higher allocations to EA assets.
  • The Euro is not benefiting from a structural shift towards it, so we doubt the bullish trend will resume. Belated payback in goods inventories could also eventually weigh.

By Philip Rush

August 12, 2025
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US Inflation Skips Several Months

  • July’s US inflation print reversed all of the increase built in from tariffs over the past several months, despite matching expectations prevailing into the release.
  • Core goods inflation eased slightly, suggesting ongoing corporate success in avoiding the tariff shock. But service inflation is stuck too high to be consistent with the target.
  • Anti-avoidance measures and belated pass-through will drive further rises. We doubt they will be as severe as many fear, yet still not create much space to cut rates.

By Philip Rush

August 11, 2025
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US/Taiwan: Xi Calls The Shots

  • In stark contrast to its dealings with other trade partners, Washington is firmly in the position of supplicant in its dealings with Beijing.
  • This reflects not only Xi Jinping’s carefully prepared and strong hand but also Donald Trump’s seeming determination to strike a deal with China at more or less any cost.
  • Increasingly, therefore, Taiwan stands to be “a pawn in a bigger game”.

By Alastair Newton

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