Archive

January 27, 2025
2025-01-27 AN_head.png

Russia, Ukraine and Trump’s Legacy

  • Contrary to the prevailing view among the commentariat, Russia’s economy alone will not bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table over Ukraine, even if Donald Trump follows through on his threats. But we may still see a deal this year. This would be good news for European equities.

By Alastair Newton

January 23, 2025
2025-01-23 GBP_head.png

GBP Depressed By Fiscal Risk Premium

  • UK government spending and deficits have attracted unwelcome attention amid falling sterling and bond prices. Yet long-term rate moves match US and short-rate shifts.
  • Sterling weakness defies relative rate moves, suggesting a risk premium worth about 4%. About 1.5pp of that premium is probably US trade policy, with the rest UK-specific.
  • Donald Trump should sustain his threats against the EU but could be softer with the UK. Fiscal risk will likely extend beyond the 26 March Budget amid tough talk, not action.

By Philip Rush

By country