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Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in May-24

• The decision by Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain the OPR at 3.00% aims to balance the need to support economic growth while managing domestic inflation amid complex global economic challenges, including persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.
• Moderate inflation levels in early 2024 and a positive economic growth outlook underscore the effectiveness of the current monetary policy—however, the policy trajectory links to developments in subsidy and price control measures and global economic conditions.
• The ringgit's valuation and stabilization are critical concerns for the MPC, influenced by external monetary policies and geopolitical factors, with ongoing strategic interventions to align the currency more closely with Malaysia's economic fundamentals.

Sweden Policy Rate 3.75% (consensus 3.75%) in May-24

• The Riksbank reduced the policy rate to 3.75%, motivated by inflation nearing the target amid a weakening economic outlook, with indications of further rate cuts if the favourable inflation outlook persists.
• Based on ongoing economic evaluations, future interest rate decisions will be cautiously managed, with potential additional rate reductions contingent on sustained positive inflation trends and economic stability.
• The central bank remains cautious about inflation risks related to external economic factors and the krona's volatility, ensuring a responsive and flexible monetary policy to navigate potential economic fluctuations effectively.

Brazil Policy Rate 10.5% (consensus 10.5%) in May-24

• Copom reduced the Selic rate by 25 basis points to 10.50% in a calibrated response to mixed domestic economic signals and persistent global uncertainties, with a continued commitment to inflation targeting amid labour market pressures.
• Inflation remains above target despite a disinflation trajectory, with projections indicating a slow convergence towards the target by 2025, influenced by domestic activities and global economic conditions.
• The decision highlights the importance of a contractionary monetary stance and credible fiscal policy in stabilizing inflation expectations, with future rate adjustments contingent upon evolving economic dynamics and budgetary discipline.

Philippines CPI Inflation 3.8% y-o-y (consensus 4.1%) in Apr-24

- Philippines CPI inflation in April 2024 registered at 3.8% y-o-y, below the consensus forecast of 4.1% and showing a moderation compared to the previous period.
- The current CPI inflation rate represents the highest growth rate since December 2023 and is 0.72 percentage points below the one-year average, indicating relatively lower price growth in the economy. Additionally, it is 1.75 percentage points below the long-run average, signaling a significant deviation from the historical trend.