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Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in May-24

• The decision by Bank Negara Malaysia to maintain the OPR at 3.00% aims to balance the need to support economic growth while managing domestic inflation amid complex global economic challenges, including persistent inflation and geopolitical tensions.
• Moderate inflation levels in early 2024 and a positive economic growth outlook underscore the effectiveness of the current monetary policy—however, the policy trajectory links to developments in subsidy and price control measures and global economic conditions.
• The ringgit's valuation and stabilization are critical concerns for the MPC, influenced by external monetary policies and geopolitical factors, with ongoing strategic interventions to align the currency more closely with Malaysia's economic fundamentals.

Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in Mar-24

• The MPC of Bank Negara Malaysia retained the OPR at 3.00% against the backdrop of global economic expansion, moderate inflation, and an improving trade environment.
• Malaysian growth is projected to accelerate in 2024, bolstered by the positive turn in export growth and robust domestic expenditure; however, monetary policy will need to remain agile to address any downside risks to external demand and commodity market volatility.
• The inflation outlook remains moderate for 2024, predicated on stable demand and cost pressures, but subject to the domestic subsidy and price control policy trajectory, which will be a significant determinant in the future direction of interest rates.

Malaysia Policy Rate 3.0% (consensus 3.0%) in Jan-24

• Bank Negara Malaysia's MPC has held the OPR steady at 3.00%, reflecting an alignment with economic consensus and a calculated response to moderating global inflation and ongoing expansion.
• Future interest rate policies will be influenced by the balance of domestic growth factors—such as export recovery and strong domestic spending—against external risks, including global market volatility and the potential for unexpected inflationary pressures.
• The MPC's close monitoring of the evolving economic landscape, especially the anticipated review of price controls and subsidies, will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Malaysia's interest rate policy in 2024.

Malaysia CPI Inflation 1.5% y-o-y (consensus 1.5%) in Dec-23

- Malaysia's CPI inflation in December 2023 remained stable at 1.5% year-on-year, in line with the consensus forecast.
- The current CPI inflation rate is lower than the one-year average by 1 percentage point, indicating a trend of relatively lower inflation levels.