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Sweden Policy Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in Jan-24

• The Riksbank maintained the policy rate at 4.0%, reflecting effective prior measures against high inflation and a current economic assessment that supports a stable yet cautious monetary stance, with signals of potential policy easing ahead.
• Inflation trends, particularly excluding energy prices, alongside moderated wage growth and anchored inflation expectations, suggest a consolidating path towards the target inflation rate, providing grounds for possible future rate cuts.
• The Riksbank remains vigilant to risks, including geopolitical tensions and exchange rate volatility, advocating for a data-driven and cautious policy adjustment approach, with indications of a more contractionary monetary policy stance through increased sales of government bonds.

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.4% y-o-y (consensus 4.3%) in Dec-23

- Sweden's CPI inflation in December 2023 exceeded the consensus estimate by 0.1pp, reaching 4.4% year-on-year.
- However, this growth represents the lowest rate since February 2022 and is significantly lower than the previous month's figure of 5.8%.

Sweden CPI Inflation 5.8% y-o-y (consensus 6.0%) in Nov-23

- Sweden's CPI inflation for November 2023 slowed to 5.8% y-o-y, 0.2pp below the consensus forecast of 6.0%, indicating a substantial moderation in price increases.
- This figure represents the slowest growth in inflation since February 2022 and is significantly below the 1-year average.

Sweden GDP Growth -0.3% q-o-q (consensus 0.0%) in Q3-23

- Sweden's GDP contracted by 0.3% q-o-q in Q3-23, marking a disappointingly small improvement from the previous quarter's decline of -0.8% (consensus 0.0%).
- The economy is in a technical recession, with the sustained decline accumulating an absolute recession with an annual fall of 1.4% y-o-y.