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Canada Policy Interest Rate 5.0% (consensus 5.0%) in Dec-23

• The Bank of Canada's decision to hold the policy rate at 5.0%, in line with economic consensus, considers the global economic slowdown, notably the impending deceleration in the US and softened growth in the Euro area, coupled with lowered oil prices and eased financial conditions.
• Stagnant domestic growth and the impact of higher interest rates on consumption and business investment inform the current rate decision, with the continued monitoring of modest wage growth and shelter price inflation essential for future policy considerations.
• The Bank's ongoing commitment to price stability, as evidenced by the current policy rate hold and quantitative tightening, reflects a focus on core inflation, demand-supply balance, and wage trends, signalling readiness to adjust rates if inflationary risks persist.

Canada Unemployment Rate 5.8% (consensus 5.8) in Nov-23

- Canada's unemployment rate in November 2023 increased to 5.8%, as expected, reaching its highest level since January 2022.
- Employment increased by 24.9k during the same period. However, the unemployment rate indicates that labour market conditions are loosening.

Canada CPI Inflation 3.12% y-o-y (consensus 3.2) in Oct-23

- Canadian CPI inflation stood at 3.12% y-o-y in October 2023, slightly below the consensus estimate and representing the lowest growth rate since June 2023.
- The inflation rate is 1.33pp below the one-year average and 1.66pp below the long run average, signaling a relatively subdued and moderated inflationary environment in Canada.

Canada Unemployment Rate 5.7% (consensus 5.6%) in Oct-23

- Canada's unemployment rate jumped beyond expectations to 5.7% in October 2023, marking the highest level since January 2022 and deviating from the one-year average by 0.46 percentage points.
- However, employment increased by almost as much as expected, suggesting the miss may not reflect diminished demand.