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Philippines CPI Inflation 4.1% y-o-y (consensus 4.3) in Nov-23

- November 2023 CPI inflation in the Philippines stood at 4.1% year-on-year, 0.2pp below the consensus estimate, reaching the lowest rate since March 2022.
- Core inflation in November 2023 slowed to 4.7% year-on-year, indicating a similarly surprising moderation in inflation.

Philippines Policy Rate 6.5% (consensus 6.5) in Nov-23

• The BSP’s decision to maintain the policy rate at 6.5% reflects a strategic pause, balancing the need to control inflation against potential over-tightening risks, demonstrating a calibrated approach to monetary policy effectiveness.
• Acknowledging the balance of risks, predominantly skewed towards the upside due to various external and domestic factors, the BSP’s policy stance is characterized by a dynamic and responsive approach to evolving economic conditions.
• Commitment to maintaining tight monetary policy settings until inflation trends downward, coupled with the readiness for further adjustments based on incoming data, underscores a flexible yet disciplined focus on price stability and economic growth.

China/US: Of Mountains And Molehills

• That Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet in person this week is to be welcomed. Furthermore, low expectations allow both sides to claim some ‘wins’. However, those expectations are rooted in the low probability of any substantive improvement in their relations.

By Alastair Newton

Philippines GDP Growth 5.9% y-o-y (consensus 4.7) in Q3-23

- The Philippines saw a 5.9% year-on-year GDP growth rate in Q3-23, the highest since Q1-23, indicating a brisk economic recovery.
- Although beating market expectations by 1.2pp, the growth rate lagged behind the long-run average by 0.46pp.