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Oil: Piling On The Uncertainties

• ‘Events’ last week added to already significant uncertainties around the oil supply/demand equation. In particular, producers and investors alike would do well to recall James Carville’s quip to the effect that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market.

By Alastair Newton

UAE PMI Non-Oil Private Sector 56.7 in Sep-23

- The UAE PMI Non-Oil Private Sector reached its highest level since June 2023, recording a reading of 56.7 in September 2023, indicating a robust expansion in economic activity.
- The strong performance can be attributed to increased consumer spending, government-led diversification efforts, and positive developments in key components such as output, new orders, and employment.

UAE M3 money supply 16.79% y-o-y in Jul-23

- UAE M3 money supply growth rate in July 2023 slowed to 16.79% year-on-year, the lowest increase since March 2023.
- Despite the slowdown, the current growth rate remains 0.97 percentage points above the one-year average and 10.06 percentage points above the long-run average.

UAE PMI Dubai Economy Tracker 55.0 in Aug-23

- The UAE PMI Dubai Economy Tracker recorded a reading of 55.0 in August 2023, the lowest level since February 2023.
- This indicates a deceleration in economic growth and a potential slowdown in business activity in the non-oil private sector in Dubai.