Archive

October 06, 2023
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HEW: Q4 Starts Quietly

  • It’s been a quiet start to the month, albeit ending in a blockbuster payroll release. We reiterated that corrupted seasonals appear to have overstated summer weakness, especially in Europe. The RBA and RBNZ held rates while Peru cut again as expected.
  • Next week could be even quieter, with no monetary policy decisions scheduled and data highlights for us limited to UK GDP. However, inflation data in the US and China are always crucial for market participants.

By Philip Rush

September 29, 2023
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HEW: Seasonal Doves

  • It’s been a relatively quiet week for economic news, although the downside surprise in EA inflation was significant, even if it was close to our call. We also highlighted how residual seasonality has been artificially depressing data, especially the EA services PMI.
  • Positive payback should come soon, but not next week when the final PMIs for September are more of the same. Monetary Policy Decisions head down under, with the RBA and RBNZ announcing decisions likely for no change, while Peru may cut again.

By Philip Rush

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