Archive

March 18, 2024
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EA: HICP Converging Close to 2%

  • In the final print, headline EA inflation was confirmed as slowing by 0.2pp to 2.6%. The 0.1pp of upside from the flash was genuine and even worse in services.
  • January’s divergence in the underlying inflationary impulse was resolved with clustering nearer 2%, potentially consistent with a sustainable return to the inflation target.
  • Lower energy costs may flatter the picture, while strong services inflation suggests wage growth remains too high. We still see the ECB’s first cut rolling to September.

By Philip Rush

March 14, 2024
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On A Slow Boat To China

  • As expected, this month’s National People’s Congress did little to alleviate China’s immediate economic malaise. Furthermore, it confirmed Xi Jinping’s determination to follow a course that owes more to his obsession with power than his longer-term economic vision.

By Alastair Newton

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