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Oil: When The Facts Change…

• Changing ‘facts’ in the Middle East and more widely are making prospects for the price of oil even more murky, as is underlined by the wide range of forecasts among market analysts. What is clear, however, is that the escalation in Iran/Israel tensions has skewed risks firmly to the upside.

By Alastair Newton

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Jan-24

- Saudi CPI inflation increased to 1.6% y-o-y in January 2024, marking the highest growth since November 2023.
- Month-on-month, CPI inflation increased by 0.3% in January 2024, indicating a slight acceleration in price levels.

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.5% y-o-y (consensus 1.5%) in Dec-23

- Saudi CPI inflation stood at 1.5% year-on-year in December 2023, the lowest level since January 2022.
- On a monthly basis, Saudi CPI inflation increased by 0.1% in December 2023, indicating relatively contained price pressures.