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Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.7% y-o-y (consensus 1.6%) in Nov-23

- Saudi CPI inflation in November 2023 surpasses market consensus by rising 0.1pp to 1.7% y-o-y, representing the highest rate since August 2023.
- The inflation rate remains below both the one-year and long-run averages, indicating a relatively stable and predictable economic environment in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Private Sector Loan Growth 9.4% y-o-y in Oct-23

- Saudi private sector loan growth in October 2023 increased by 9.4% year-on-year, partially reversing September's slowing.
- Although the growth rate increased, it still falls 1.19 percentage points below the one-year average and 3.84 percentage points below the long-run average.

Oil: Lower For Longer?

• Although Opec+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree to modest additional trimming, growth in non-Opec+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024.

By Alastair Newton