Archive

Oil: Lower For Longer?

• Although Opec+ will almost certainly extend existing cuts at its 26 November meeting and might agree to modest additional trimming, growth in non-Opec+ production is currently on track to see global output outpacing demand through 2024.

By Alastair Newton

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.6% y-o-y (consensus 1.7%) in Oct-23

- Saudi CPI inflation in October 2023 was 1.6% year-on-year, slightly below market expectations of 1.7% and the lowest level since January 2022.
- The inflation rate in October 2023 was 0.99 percentage points under the one-year average and 1.10 percentage points below the long-run average, indicating a subdued inflationary environment.

Saudi Private Sector Loan Growth 9.3% y-o-y in Sep-23

- Saudi private sector loan growth in September 2023 recorded a 9.3% year-on-year increase, slightly lower than the previous month's figure of 9.5%.
- The growth rate of 9.3% is 1.63 percentage points below the one-year average and 4.05 percentage points below the long-run average of private sector loan growth in Saudi Arabia.

The Middle East in Crisis (Again)

• Even considering the uptick in the price of oil since 7 October, markets remain calm in the face of the Israel/Hamas war. Both history and current events suggest that this is appropriate even though risks of serious and potentially market-moving escalations abound.

By Alastair Newton