Archive

Oil: When The Facts Change…

• Changing ‘facts’ in the Middle East and more widely are making prospects for the price of oil even more murky, as is underlined by the wide range of forecasts among market analysts. What is clear, however, is that the escalation in Iran/Israel tensions has skewed risks firmly to the upside.

By Alastair Newton

Oil: A Fine Line

• The IEA’s recent shift in its 2024 supply/demand forecast closer to Opec’s is premised on relatively bullish estimates for the Chinese and US economies coupled with continued Opec+ discipline. None of these is a given.

By Alastair Newton

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

UAE M3 Money Supply 14.8% y-o-y in Sep-23

- UAE M3 Money Supply recorded a significant year-on-year growth rate of 14.8% in September 2023, the highest level since July 2023.
- The growth is 1.08 percentage points below the one-year average but 6.00 percentage points above the long-run average, indicating expansionary monetary conditions.