Archive

October 08, 2025
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RBNZ Cuts OCR to Stimulative 2.5%

  • The RBNZ cut its OCR by 50bps to 2.5%, beyond the 25bp consensus, with unanimous committee support signalling a more aggressive stance than August's split vote.
  • Inflation is forecast at 3% in Q3 but returns to 2% midpoint by H1 2026 due to spare capacity, providing scope for further easing.
  • The Committee remains open to additional cuts with the November meeting live, as terminal rate expectations fall below the previous neutral 3% estimate.
August 20, 2025
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New Zealand Extends Dovish Rate Cycle

  • The RBNZ cut the OCR to 3% in August, matching consensus expectations amid stalled growth and stable medium-term inflation.
  • This decision was split, with a minority favouring a larger cut. Further reductions to 2.5% are likely unless inflation surprises persist.
  • Weak household demand and global uncertainty may extend the easing cycle, making future rate policy highly data-dependent.
July 09, 2025
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RBNZ: Policy Rate Held At 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in Jul-25

  • The RBNZ unanimously held the OCR at 3.25% after six consecutive cuts, marking the first pause in its easing cycle as inflation edges towards the top of the 1-3% target band.
  • The Committee maintains an explicit easing bias, signalling that further rate cuts are expected if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected.
  • Future monetary policy decisions will be heavily influenced by global trade tensions, domestic economic recovery momentum, and inflation expectations amid an explicitly uncertain outlook.
May 28, 2025
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RBNZ: 25bp Rate Cut To 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in May-25

  • The RBNZ reduced the Official Cash Rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with consensus expectations, citing subdued core inflation, spare economic capacity, and global headwinds.
  • The decision, reached by a 5-1 majority, reflects internal debate over the pace of easing and a shift toward a more data-dependent policy approach, with no explicit guidance on further rate cuts.
  • Evolving global trade tensions will influence future interest rate decisions, domestic inflation expectations, and the pace of economic recovery, with the OCR projected to reach 3.00% by year-end but subject to heightened uncertainty.

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