Archive

November 26, 2025
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RBNZ Eases While Eyeing Medium-Term Inflation

  • The RBNZ surprised some economists by lowering the OCR 25bps to 2.25%, prioritising support for a hesitant economic recovery.
  • The policy outlook will hinge on real-time inflation, labour, and external data, with macro risks remaining broadly balanced.
  • Cautious, flexible monetary policy is expected, with future interest rate moves highly data-dependent and state-contingent.
October 08, 2025
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RBNZ Cuts OCR to Stimulative 2.5%

  • The RBNZ cut its OCR by 50bps to 2.5%, beyond the 25bp consensus, with unanimous committee support signalling a more aggressive stance than August's split vote.
  • Inflation is forecast at 3% in Q3 but returns to 2% midpoint by H1 2026 due to spare capacity, providing scope for further easing.
  • The Committee remains open to additional cuts with the November meeting live, as terminal rate expectations fall below the previous neutral 3% estimate.
August 20, 2025
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New Zealand Extends Dovish Rate Cycle

  • The RBNZ cut the OCR to 3% in August, matching consensus expectations amid stalled growth and stable medium-term inflation.
  • This decision was split, with a minority favouring a larger cut. Further reductions to 2.5% are likely unless inflation surprises persist.
  • Weak household demand and global uncertainty may extend the easing cycle, making future rate policy highly data-dependent.
July 09, 2025
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RBNZ: Policy Rate Held At 3.25% (Consensus 3.25%) in Jul-25

  • The RBNZ unanimously held the OCR at 3.25% after six consecutive cuts, marking the first pause in its easing cycle as inflation edges towards the top of the 1-3% target band.
  • The Committee maintains an explicit easing bias, signalling that further rate cuts are expected if medium-term inflation pressures continue to ease as projected.
  • Future monetary policy decisions will be heavily influenced by global trade tensions, domestic economic recovery momentum, and inflation expectations amid an explicitly uncertain outlook.

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