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New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in May-24

• The RBNZ maintained its policy rate at 5.50%, in line with economic consensus, emphasizing the need for restrictive monetary policy to control inflation.
• Domestic inflation remains above the target range, driven by higher costs in non-tradable sectors; future rate decisions will depend on the pace of inflation reduction and adjustment of inflation expectations.
• Global economic growth remains subdued with variations among trading partners; cautious global monetary policy and labour market dynamics will significantly influence the RBNZ's future interest rate trajectory.

New Zealand Unemployment Rate 4.3% (consensus 4.2%) in Q1-24

- New Zealand's unemployment rate increased surprisingly far in Q1-24 to 4.3%, surpassing the one-year average by 0.35 percentage points and the long-run average by 0.70 percentage points.
- Employment contracted by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, but labour costs rose by 0.8% q-o-q and 3.8% y-o-y.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Apr-24

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain the OCR at 5.50% reflects a strategic intent to manage inflationary pressures influenced by domestic and global economic conditions.
• Persistent inflationary pressures, amid weak economic growth and the nuanced impact of net migration on the labour market and consumer spending, underscore the complexities of returning consumer price inflation to the target range.
• Future policy decisions will hinge on the balance between restrictive monetary policy measures and their impact on economic stability, with a keen eye on global economic trends, labour market dynamics, and inflationary trends.

New Zealand Policy Rate 5.5% (consensus 5.5%) in Feb-24

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision to maintain the OCR at 5.50% is predicated on a strategic imperative to curb inflationary pressures amid a complex interplay of domestic capacity easing and sustained global economic challenges.
• Global economic uncertainties, coupled with geopolitical and environmental risks, notably in shipping costs, present nuanced inflationary pressures that the MPC is poised to address through sustained restrictive monetary policy.
• The ongoing assessment of fiscal policy impacts, alongside the vigilance towards domestic and global economic developments, will critically inform the MPC's future policy decisions, underscoring a commitment to steering inflation towards the target range while fostering economic stability.