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March 27, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
  • Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
  • The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.
January 23, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jan-25

  • The Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with expectations, and reiterated its guidance for a potential reduction in March as inflation moderates further.
  • Inflation has decelerated faster than anticipated, with headline CPI at 2.2% in December, though core inflation remains above target due to persistent wage growth and high business costs.
  • External factors, including rising policy rate expectations among trading partners and potential trade barriers, alongside domestic economic resilience, will influence the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments.
December 19, 2024
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.
  • Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.
  • The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.
November 07, 2024
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Nov-24

  • Norges Bank has kept its policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with forecasts. It emphasises the contribution of tight policy to slowing inflation from 7.5% to 3%.
  • The policy outlook highlights persistent inflation risks due to solid wage growth and krone depreciation, which could impede further disinflation.
  • The bank anticipates maintaining the rate through 2024, with possible reductions in 2025 contingent on continued economic moderation and global trends.

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