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January 23, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jan-25

  • The Norges Bank kept the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%, in line with expectations, and reiterated its guidance for a potential reduction in March as inflation moderates further.
  • Inflation has decelerated faster than anticipated, with headline CPI at 2.2% in December, though core inflation remains above target due to persistent wage growth and high business costs.
  • External factors, including rising policy rate expectations among trading partners and potential trade barriers, alongside domestic economic resilience, will influence the timing and magnitude of future rate adjustments.
December 19, 2024
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with the consensus, and signalled potential easing from March 2025, contingent on continued economic moderation.
  • Inflation has slowed significantly but remains above target, constrained by high wage growth and business costs; domestic activity has exceeded expectations, while unemployment remains stable.
  • The outlook is marked by uncertainty, with risks from global trade policy and domestic inflationary pressures influencing the trajectory of future rate adjustments.
November 07, 2024
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Nov-24

  • Norges Bank has kept its policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with forecasts. It emphasises the contribution of tight policy to slowing inflation from 7.5% to 3%.
  • The policy outlook highlights persistent inflation risks due to solid wage growth and krone depreciation, which could impede further disinflation.
  • The bank anticipates maintaining the rate through 2024, with possible reductions in 2025 contingent on continued economic moderation and global trends.
September 19, 2024
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Norway Policy Rate 4.5% (consensus 4.5%) in Sep-24

  • The Norges Bank kept its policy rate at 4.5%, aligning with expectations, as it aims to balance disinflationary efforts with the costs of subdued economic growth.
  • While inflation has declined significantly, elevated wage growth and weak productivity continue to drive business costs higher, complicating the disinflation process.
  • The policy rate is expected to remain unchanged until the end of 2024, with potential easing in 2025, though uncertainties surrounding the krone depreciation and economic growth may prompt adjustments.

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