Archive

Oil: How Low Will It Go?

• Riyadh’s acceleration in unwinding cuts to oil output is now widely seen as a drive to squeeze out high-cost producers, especially US shale. However, no matter how low the price of crude oil goes, tariff-related economic uncertainties make success no more certain than it was in 2014-16.

By Alastair Newton

Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

• The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

Qatar CPI Inflation 1.59% m-o-m in Dec-23

- Qatar's CPI inflation experienced a notable increase in December 2023, reaching 1.59% compared to the previous month's rate of 0.16%.
- Although significantly higher than the one-year average, it is not much higher than last Dec-22, so the annual rate only increased by a few tenths to 1.65%.

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton