Archive

July 28, 2025
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Opec: Twist Or Stick?

  • The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
  • The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
  • Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.

By Alastair Newton

June 30, 2025
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Oil: Revisiting My Forecast

  • Oil supply is projected to outpace demand growth through 2026, leading to rising inventories and sustained downward pressure on Brent crude to below USD60pb.
  • Opec+ output increases, quota disputes (especially with the UAE), and the potential unwinding of voluntary cuts could further flood the market.
  • US shale producers and international oil companies are reducing investment due to lower prices, but current Brent levels are not yet low enough to force significant cuts.

By Alastair Newton

May 12, 2025
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Oil: How Low Will It Go?

  • Riyadh’s acceleration in unwinding cuts to oil output is now widely seen as a drive to squeeze out high-cost producers, especially US shale. However, no matter how low the price of crude oil goes, tariff-related economic uncertainties make success no more certain than it was in 2014-16.

By Alastair Newton

February 26, 2025
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Oil Update: Pipe Dreams

  • With so many conflicting signals emerging from the US Administration, it is not surprising that both investors and extractors are increasingly cautious about politicians’ aspirations for the hydrocarbons market in both the US and Canada. This may be some small consolation for Opec.

By Alastair Newton

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