Archive

January 06, 2026
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Oil in 2026

  • Last year’s downward trend in the price of oil is set to continue into 2026, with most analysts expecting Brent crude to test USD55pb in the first half of the year.
  • There is undue concern about geopolitical supply disruption buoying prices, whereas we believe the real focus should be on what Opec+ decides to do at the end of the quarter.
  • My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is therefore USD55pb, but with the risk to this price skewed to the downside.

By Alastair Newton

December 08, 2025
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2026 Politics: Nine Guesses & A Certainty

  • In what promises to be another year fraught with uncertainty, politics and markets will again be dominated by the United States in general and Donald Trump in particular.
  • Widely differing views of equity market prospects demonstrate this, i.e. the ‘bubble is about to burst’ doomsayers versus the bullish seeming consensus on Wall Street.
  • However, the biggest challenge facing investors is focusing on what really matters amid the continuing ‘noise’ emanating from the Trump Administration in particular.

By Alastair Newton

November 12, 2025
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Oil: Wisdom of (Mohammed bin) Salman

  • Most analysis of Opec+’s 2 November decision is as overly simplistic as the cartel’s public justifications. Calling an unwinding ‘time out’ in 2026Q1 is by no means unwise.
  • Most notably — and despite continuing economic and political uncertainty — it is very likely that the market will be awash with oil in any case for some months to come.
  • In other words, the cartel may already have done enough to achieve its primary objective, i.e. clawing back market share at the expense of US shale producers.

By Alastair Newton

July 28, 2025
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Opec: Twist Or Stick?

  • The further acceleration by ‘Opec+ eight’ in unwinding the second package of voluntary output cuts was a surprise, albeit one that left markets unmoved.
  • The cartel now appears to be firmly on track to complete its unwinding in September, even though its stated justifications for increasing output remain highly questionable.
  • Despite downside global growth risks, the Saudis in particular may press to start unwinding the first package, a move which may be announced as early as next week.

By Alastair Newton

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