Archive

January 27, 2025
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Russia, Ukraine and Trump’s Legacy

  • Contrary to the prevailing view among the commentariat, Russia’s economy alone will not bring Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table over Ukraine, even if Donald Trump follows through on his threats. But we may still see a deal this year. This would be good news for European equities.

By Alastair Newton

January 08, 2025
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Oil in 2025

  • The threat of trade wars makes forecasting the oil price this year unusually hazardous. However, based on the ‘known knowns’, one can safely assume that the downward pressure we saw through 2024 will persist. My forecast for Brent crude on 31 December is, therefore, USD65 per barrel.

By Alastair Newton

November 18, 2024
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US Politics: “Liquid Gold”

  • Donald Trump will do whatever he can to deliver on his promise to cut energy prices in half within 12 months. But factors outside of his control will prevent him from achieving anything more than a modest ‘win’, if that.

By Alastair Newton

October 07, 2024
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The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

  • Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack last week is seemingly inevitable and may well mark a further escalation, especially if, as seems likely, Israel is aiming fundamentally to shift the balance of power in the region. Nevertheless, the perceived threat to oil may be overstated.

By Alastair Newton

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