Archive

October 07, 2024
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The Middle East: At An Inflection Point?

  • Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack last week is seemingly inevitable and may well mark a further escalation, especially if, as seems likely, Israel is aiming fundamentally to shift the balance of power in the region. Nevertheless, the perceived threat to oil may be overstated.

By Alastair Newton

September 24, 2024
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Oil: Rolling The Barrel Down The Road

  • Opec+ has little choice in the face of persistent weak demand for oil other than to further delay the unwinding of its voluntary cuts. Even then, without a sustained geopolitical shock, Brent looks set to settle below USD70 per barrel until at least the middle of 2025.

By Alastair Newton

August 19, 2024
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Revisiting Peak Oil

  • Significant differences over short-term prospects for oil demand become even more stark when considering the timing of ‘peak oil’.

By Alastair Newton

July 15, 2024
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Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

  • The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

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