Archive

The Middle East in Crisis (Again)

• Even considering the uptick in the price of oil since 7 October, markets remain calm in the face of the Israel/Hamas war. Both history and current events suggest that this is appropriate even though risks of serious and potentially market-moving escalations abound.

By Alastair Newton

Saudi CPI Inflation 1.7% y-o-y in Sep-23

- Saudi CPI inflation in September 2023 records a modest growth rate of 1.7% y-o-y, the lowest since February 2022 and lower than the previous month's rate of 2.0%.
- The current Saudi CPI inflation is 1.01 pp below the one-year average, suggesting subdued inflationary pressures.

Oil: Piling On The Uncertainties

• ‘Events’ last week added to already significant uncertainties around the oil supply/demand equation. In particular, producers and investors alike would do well to recall James Carville’s quip to the effect that he wanted to be reincarnated as the bond market.

By Alastair Newton

Saudi Arabia PMI Non-Oil Private Sector 57.2 in Sep-23

- Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector experienced noteworthy expansion in September 2023, with a PMI reading of 57.2, indicating positive growth.
- This reading represents the highest level since July 2023, suggesting a robust economic recovery. Nonetheless, it is still 1.01 points below the one-year average, indicating room for further improvement.