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Sweden CPI Inflation 4.1% y-o-y (consensus 4.4) in Mar-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation in March 2024 slowed to 4.1% y-o-y, well below the consensus expectation of 4.4% and marking the lowest growth rate since January 2022.
- Although the inflation rate remains high, it is 2.86 pp below the 1-year average. The CPIF also slowed surprisingly far to 2.2%.

Sweden CPI Inflation 4.5% y-o-y (consensus 4.7%) in Feb-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation for February 2024 was 4.5% year-on-year, below the consensus forecast of 4.7%, suggesting a surprise moderation in inflationary pressures.
- The current inflation rate is close to the December 2023 lows, so it is significantly below the one-year average.

Sweden CPI Inflation 5.4% y-o-y (consensus 5.1%) in Jan-24

- Sweden's CPI inflation in January 2024 exceeded market consensus, reaching 5.4% year-on-year, indicating potential challenges from rising consumer prices.
- Nonetheless, by remaining 2.73 percentage points below the one-year average, this outcome shows that most of the progress towards the inflation target is sustained.

Sweden Policy Rate 4.0% (consensus 4.0%) in Jan-24

• The Riksbank maintained the policy rate at 4.0%, reflecting effective prior measures against high inflation and a current economic assessment that supports a stable yet cautious monetary stance, with signals of potential policy easing ahead.
• Inflation trends, particularly excluding energy prices, alongside moderated wage growth and anchored inflation expectations, suggest a consolidating path towards the target inflation rate, providing grounds for possible future rate cuts.
• The Riksbank remains vigilant to risks, including geopolitical tensions and exchange rate volatility, advocating for a data-driven and cautious policy adjustment approach, with indications of a more contractionary monetary policy stance through increased sales of government bonds.