Archive

November 05, 2025
SE.png

Swedish Rate Pause: Recovery Rising, Risks Remain

  • The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, matching consensus. Inflation is easing but is still above target, signalling little chance of cuts or hikes in the near term.​
  • A weak labour market offset stronger-than-expected Q3 growth. Policymakers are watching household demand closely to assess the durability of the recovery before shifting rates.​
  • Ongoing risks from geopolitics, trade, and fiscal policy keep the future rate path uncertain, with market pricing in steady rates through 2026 barring major shocks.
September 23, 2025
SE.png

Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause

  • Surprise rate cut to 1.75% reflects weak growth trumping temporary inflation concerns; policy likely on hold "for some time".
  • Fiscal stimulus of SEK 80bn for 2026 supports the outlook but creates inflation uncertainty via supply-demand imbalance.
  • The projected terminal rate is now reached, with the next move potentially a rate hike before the end of 2026.
August 20, 2025
SE.png

Riksbank Holds at 2% Amid Fragile Outlook

  • The Riksbank held its rate at 2% while seeing above-target summer inflation as temporary.
  • Weak growth and a fragile labour market sustain rate-cut probability later in 2025.
  • The policy outlook hinges on fading inflation pressures, demand recovery, and global risks.
June 18, 2025
SE.png

Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
  • The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
  • Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.

By country