Archive

August 20, 2025
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Riksbank Holds at 2% Amid Fragile Outlook

  • The Riksbank held its rate at 2% while seeing above-target summer inflation as temporary.
  • Weak growth and a fragile labour market sustain rate-cut probability later in 2025.
  • The policy outlook hinges on fading inflation pressures, demand recovery, and global risks.
June 18, 2025
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut To 2% (Consensus 2%) in Jun-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 2%, in line with consensus expectations, citing weaker economic growth and a subdued inflation outlook.
  • The decision reflects persistent uncertainty in both domestic demand and the global environment, with the central bank signalling a non-trivial probability of further easing should inflation remain below target and recovery falter.
  • Future policy decisions will be highly data-dependent, with particular attention to inflation dynamics, labour market conditions, and the impact of ongoing geopolitical and trade-related risks.
May 08, 2025
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Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in May-25

  • The Riksbank held the policy rate at 2.25%, in line with expectations, citing a well-balanced monetary stance amid elevated inflation and softening growth prospects.
  • Although inflation remains somewhat high, the Riksbank views this as temporary and now considers downside risks to inflation more likely than upside ones, suggesting a potential easing bias.
  • External uncertainty, driven by US trade policy and geopolitical tensions, plus falling household confidence domestically, are key factors likely to influence the interest rate path.
March 20, 2025
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Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Mar-25

  • As expected, the Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing broadly stable inflation and economic conditions despite recent global volatility.
  • Inflation has exceeded expectations due to temporary factors, but it is projected to stabilise close to 2% next year as these effects normalise and the krona strengthens.
  • Geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and domestic economic factors such as household consumption and investment will be key in determining future monetary policy adjustments.

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