Archive

December 18, 2025
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Riksbank Holds at 1.75%: Steady Path Ahead

  • Riksbank holds rate at 1.75% as expected (no surprise); expects stability through 2026 before gradual hikes to 2.1% by 2028 as recovery strengthens.
  • GDP growth up to 2.9% (2026 vs 2.7% prior); inflation stable near 2% CPIF supports extended accommodation without cuts.
  • Labour market improving amid risks (geopolitics, fiscal expansion); flexible to adjust if outlook shifts from baseline path.
November 05, 2025
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Swedish Rate Pause: Recovery Rising, Risks Remain

  • The Riksbank left rates unchanged at 1.75%, matching consensus. Inflation is easing but is still above target, signalling little chance of cuts or hikes in the near term.​
  • A weak labour market offset stronger-than-expected Q3 growth. Policymakers are watching household demand closely to assess the durability of the recovery before shifting rates.​
  • Ongoing risks from geopolitics, trade, and fiscal policy keep the future rate path uncertain, with market pricing in steady rates through 2026 barring major shocks.
September 23, 2025
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Riksbank Cuts to 1.75%, Signals Pause

  • Surprise rate cut to 1.75% reflects weak growth trumping temporary inflation concerns; policy likely on hold "for some time".
  • Fiscal stimulus of SEK 80bn for 2026 supports the outlook but creates inflation uncertainty via supply-demand imbalance.
  • The projected terminal rate is now reached, with the next move potentially a rate hike before the end of 2026.
August 20, 2025
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Riksbank Holds at 2% Amid Fragile Outlook

  • The Riksbank held its rate at 2% while seeing above-target summer inflation as temporary.
  • Weak growth and a fragile labour market sustain rate-cut probability later in 2025.
  • The policy outlook hinges on fading inflation pressures, demand recovery, and global risks.

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