Archive

May 08, 2025
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Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in May-25

  • The Riksbank held the policy rate at 2.25%, in line with expectations, citing a well-balanced monetary stance amid elevated inflation and softening growth prospects.
  • Although inflation remains somewhat high, the Riksbank views this as temporary and now considers downside risks to inflation more likely than upside ones, suggesting a potential easing bias.
  • External uncertainty, driven by US trade policy and geopolitical tensions, plus falling household confidence domestically, are key factors likely to influence the interest rate path.
March 20, 2025
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Sweden: Policy Rate Held At 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Mar-25

  • As expected, the Riksbank kept its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, citing broadly stable inflation and economic conditions despite recent global volatility.
  • Inflation has exceeded expectations due to temporary factors, but it is projected to stabilise close to 2% next year as these effects normalise and the krona strengthens.
  • Geopolitical tensions, trade policy shifts, and domestic economic factors such as household consumption and investment will be key in determining future monetary policy adjustments.
January 29, 2025
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Jan-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 0.25pp to 2.25%, in line with the consensus forecast, citing weak economic activity and contained inflation risks.
  • Forward guidance suggests a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with policymakers closely monitoring the delayed impact of previous reductions on demand and inflation.
  • External risks, including geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty in major economies, alongside domestic factors like the krona’s exchange rate, will be key in shaping the future interest rate trajectory.
December 19, 2024
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.
  • Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.
  • External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona's exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.

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