Archive

January 29, 2025
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.25% (Consensus 2.25%) in Jan-25

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 0.25pp to 2.25%, in line with the consensus forecast, citing weak economic activity and contained inflation risks.
  • Forward guidance suggests a cautious approach to future rate cuts, with policymakers closely monitoring the delayed impact of previous reductions on demand and inflation.
  • External risks, including geopolitical tensions and economic policy uncertainty in major economies, alongside domestic factors like the krona’s exchange rate, will be key in shaping the future interest rate trajectory.
December 19, 2024
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Sweden: 25bp Rate Cut to 2.5% (Consensus 2.5%) in Dec-24

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25bp to 2.5%, meeting consensus expectations and reflecting a total reduction of 1.5 percentage points since May 2024 to support weak economic activity and stabilise inflation near the target.
  • Forward guidance indicates the potential for another rate cut in H1 2025, contingent on stable inflation and growth projections, emphasising evaluating the lagged effects of earlier policy adjustments.
  • External uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and trade policy ambiguities, alongside domestic risks, such as the krona's exchange rate and fragile recovery momentum, will influence future monetary policy decisions.
November 07, 2024
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Sweden: 50bp Rate Cut to 2.75% (Consensus 2.75%) in Nov-24

  • The Riksbank reduced its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to 2.75%, supporting economic recovery amid weak domestic demand and rising unemployment.
  • Continued bond sales and a maintained SEK 20 billion holding underscore a dual focus on financial stability and readiness for policy flexibility.
  • External risks from strong US growth, weak eurozone and Chinese markets, and geopolitical uncertainties could necessitate future adjustments to the Riksbank’s rate outlook​​​.
September 25, 2024
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Sweden Policy Rate 3.25% (consensus 3.25%) in Sep-24

  • The Riksbank cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%, in line with consensus, and signaled potential further cuts at a faster pace if inflation and economic activity remain stable.
  • Future rate cuts are likely, with two more reductions expected in 2025, contingent on sustained favourable inflation developments and improved economic activity.
  • Uncertainty remains due to geopolitical risks, global economic conditions, and energy price volatility, which could alter the trajectory of monetary policy adjustments.

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