Archive

December 11, 2025
2025-12-11 rates_head.png

Monetary Policy Tide Is Turning Up

  • Markets are already pricing the return of rate hikes in 2026 for Canada, Australia and New Zealand, while policymakers elsewhere are starting to warn of the possibility.
  • Transitional support to structural adjustments needs unwinding, as Canada signals most prominently. Broader activity resilience and inflation reveal the risk of overstimulation.
  • The BoE already committed a policy mistake by easing too early, and is split by those recognising the persistent danger. Market pricing remains too dovish for 2026.

By Philip Rush

December 09, 2025
2025-12-09 Trade_head.png

China Re-rooting Rather Than Dumping

  • China’s rising export growth to Europe in November demonstrates base effects around a steady trend that predates US tariff increases. It isn’t about dumping.
  • Avoidance measures remain rife, with transhipping through Vietnam not dented by the provisions in their US trade deal. Effective tariff rates aren’t rising belatedly.
  • Profit-maximising companies still seem to be working around US measures, keeping the impact on inflation and growth smaller than many other economists feared.

By Philip Rush

December 03, 2025
2025-12-03 pmi_head.png

Activity Thaws Into Winter

  • The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.
  • A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.
  • Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

By Philip Rush

December 02, 2025
2025-12-02 EA_head.png

EA: False Dawn For Disinflation

  • A surprise rise in EA inflation to 2.2% in November meant October’s long-awaited dip was a false dawn for a disinflationary consensus exceeded by 0.4pp since June.
  • The accumulated extent and the increase in service inflation to 3.5% are concerning, but the latest news was narrowly concentrated in Greece, with other errors being minor.
  • Stronger underlying momentum into year-end is preventing the January base effects from driving it significantly below target. The ECB’s good place isn’t breaking dovishly.

By Philip Rush

By country