Archive

August 20, 2024
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EA Inflation is Awkwardly Strong

  • The final EA inflation print broadly confirmed the flash release’s surprise rise to 2.58% in July, with services only slowing to 4%. Median rates are pushing above 2% again.
  • Annual underlying inflation measures are still slowing, but the extent is being revised higher, and so are headline consensus forecast profiles.
  • Renewed slowing over the next two months, while medium-term projections are stable, should allow the ECB to cut in September. Resilience should urge cautious restraint.

By Philip Rush

August 19, 2024
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Revisiting Peak Oil

  • Significant differences over short-term prospects for oil demand become even more stark when considering the timing of ‘peak oil’.

By Alastair Newton

August 12, 2024
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Trade: Back To The Future

  • Although the escalation in international trade tensions would be more extreme under a second Trump administration, protectionism will continue to rear its ugly head worldwide, irrespective of the outcome of the US election.

By Alastair Newton

August 08, 2024
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VAR Shock Pains Pass

  • Volatility spiked on 5 August, feeding dysfunctional dynamics. Risk assets have suffered but would be near their lows and soon recover their highs under historical examples.
  • Equity prices also fell into the Fed’s first rate cut in 1998 before the tech bubble was blown. The equivalent potential for easing to prove premature is undiminished.
  • There is no need for an emergency cut, and September’s monetary policy decisions should depend on the recession risk in macro data rather than on recent equity moves.

By Philip Rush

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