Archive

September 03, 2025
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Cutting After Pauses

  • The BoE and Fed rarely resume cutting cycles after a pause, yet the Fed seems set to break its hold with a cut just as the BoE and ECB enter their own pauses.
  • 2002-03 is the best historical parallel for the Fed, which signals potential cuts should be shallow and are likely to be reversed. Politics is no match for the fundamental need.
  • Persistently excessive UK pressures should prevent the BoE from cutting in November or beyond, with a quarterly pause historically unlikely to resolve in another rate cut.

By Philip Rush

September 02, 2025
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EA: Defying Disinflationary Narratives

  • Dovish hopes for EA disinflation continue to be disappointed by resilient outcomes. The rise to 2.1% in August amid sticky core pressures is opposite to the dovish narrative.
  • Euro appreciation’s disinflationary shock is being offset by domestic resilience, which was most surprising in Northern Europe. Our errors were relatively small and balanced.
  • Ongoing upside surprises have defied recent consensus expectations of a drift down to 1.8%. The ECB faces broad upside news that should reassure it against cutting again.

By Philip Rush

August 28, 2025
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ECB Easing Transmits Need To Hold Rates

  • ECB rate cuts are stimulating a trend rise in lending growth to levels consistent with no change in policy, as the monetary transmission mechanism delivers the easing.
  • Activity surveys are less bullish, but reflect stagnant supply-side potential that can’t be fixed by stimulating demand, which would merely stoke the inflation problem.
  • Potentially inappropriate Fed easing does not raise peer pressure like fundamental US weakness would. Domestic news dominates and supports our ECB call for no change.

By Philip Rush

August 20, 2025
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EA: Sticky Inflation Survives Euro’s Surge

  • Inflation’s surprise stickiness at 2% was confirmed in the Euro area’s final print, with pressures broad based and slightly above a target-consistent pace in most countries.
  • There has been little progress in inflation’s latent trend or our persistence-weighted measure, despite the Euro’s substantial and sustained appreciation.
  • Without dovish second-round effects, the ECB can look through a potential slowing in headline inflation to a tight labour market and persistent pressures, then not cut rates.

By Philip Rush

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