Archive

Four Important EM Elections in 2024

• Elections in Indonesia and India should both result in policy continuity as far as the economy is concerned. In South Africa, the election outcome will likely lead to a further deterioration in governance. As for Mexico, MORENA will probably retain the presidency but fall short of its target two-thirds majority in the legislature.

By Alastair Newton

India CPI Inflation 5.69% y-o-y (consensus 5.9%) in Dec-23

- India's CPI inflation for December 2023 was 5.69% y-o-y, slightly lower than the consensus estimate of 5.9% but above the previous month's reading of 5.55%.
- This figure represents the highest growth in CPI inflation since August 2023 inflationary pressures and is close to the one-year average.

Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #2

• For the past 18 months or so, there has been much talk of ‘peak China’ economically. As we enter the year of the dragon, should we add to this the semi-related question of whether we are also witnessing China’s diplomatic peak?

By Alastair Newton

India CPI Inflation 5.55% y-o-y (consensus 5.7%) in Nov-23

- India's November 2023 CPI inflation was 5.55% y-o-y, slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 5.7%, but still the highest growth rate since August 2023.
- Despite this increase, the current inflation rate remains 0.11 percentage points below the one-year average, indicating moderate inflationary pressure in India.