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Outlook 2024: The Year Of The Dragon #2

• For the past 18 months or so, there has been much talk of ‘peak China’ economically. As we enter the year of the dragon, should we add to this the semi-related question of whether we are also witnessing China’s diplomatic peak?

By Alastair Newton

India CPI Inflation 5.55% y-o-y (consensus 5.7%) in Nov-23

- India's November 2023 CPI inflation was 5.55% y-o-y, slightly lower than the consensus forecast of 5.7%, but still the highest growth rate since August 2023.
- Despite this increase, the current inflation rate remains 0.11 percentage points below the one-year average, indicating moderate inflationary pressure in India.

China/US: Of Mountains And Molehills

• That Joe Biden and Xi Jinping will meet in person this week is to be welcomed. Furthermore, low expectations allow both sides to claim some ‘wins’. However, those expectations are rooted in the low probability of any substantive improvement in their relations.

By Alastair Newton

India CPI Inflation 4.87% y-o-y (consensus 4.8) in Oct-23

- India's CPI inflation in October 2023 was marginally higher than the consensus forecast at 4.87% y-o-y but still slowed to the lowest growth since May 2023.
- The current CPI inflation rate is 0.82 pp below the one-year average, indicating an encouraging easing of excessive inflationary trends.