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UK: Growing Through Pay Blip

• Adjusted UK labour market data report the unemployment rate at 4.2% again, with activity levels continuing to trend higher. Lower weekly job vacancies look seasonal.
• Wages retreated in October after September’s surge, shocking expectations. Without revisions, which are consistently higher, growth may settle near 6% in the new year.
• Wage settlements are resilient while the unemployment rate has stopped rising, suggesting the cyclical slowdown is ending prematurely, sustaining hawkish pressures.

By Philip Rush

US Nonfarm Payroll Change 199k (consensus 180k) in Nov-23

- The US nonfarm payroll change in November 2023 exceeded expectations by 19k to reach 199k.
- The unemployment rate for November fell by 0.2pp to 3.7%, indicating a shockingly robust labour market.