Archive

April 23, 2025
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Global Manufacturers Shrug Off Tariffs

  • Volatile and destructive US trade policy has roiled markets and confidence, but April's flash PMI data suggests the sector isn’t suffering significantly more than before.
  • The average held steady while the US balance increased. Weakness concentrated in the UK, where experience of the past decade suggests it is more distorted by bad vibes.
  • Unemployment data are a more reliable signal, albeit lagging, and these also remain remarkably resilient. Rate cuts rely on Trump breaking the economy, but lack evidence.

By Philip Rush

April 15, 2025
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UK: Green Shoots For Unemployment Wilt

  • Signs that statistical effects might lower the unemployment rate in the Spring have weakened, with stability at 4.4% now more likely amid stagnant underlying trends.
  • Levels remain healthy and redundancies are low despite falling vacancies, suggesting resilience survives rather than thrives. Rapid wage growth is more problematic.
  • Dovish hopes that excesses will break soon, aided by destructive US trade policy, keep the BoE on track to cut in May. Sterling strength also adds disinflationary space.

By Philip Rush

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