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UK: More Employees Not Settling for Less

• UK unemployment unsurprisingly remained at 4.2% again in November amid ongoing employment growth. However, job vacancies have fallen by more than seasonal norms.
• A potential loss of demand has not prevented wage settlements so far in January from matching last year’s excesses, albeit with a tighter range around the median.
• Stability in wage settlements and unemployment continues to suggest that inflation expectations are too high and policy isn’t too tight, so there is no need to cut rates.

By Philip Rush

Euro area Unemployment Rate 6.4% (consensus 6.5%) in Nov-23

- The Euro area unemployment rate for November 2023 was 6.4%, slightly below the consensus forecast of 6.5%, indicating a marginal improvement in joblessness.
- The unemployment rate was 0.13 percentage points below the one-year average and 0.23 percentage points below the long-run average, suggesting a relatively tight labour market situation.

Brazil Economic Activity Growth -0.06% m-o-m (consensus 0.1) in Oct-23

- Brazil's economic activity contracted by 0.06% in October 2023, missing the consensus estimate of 0.1% growth.
- The current contraction is the third consecutive one. It is also 0.14 percentage points worse than the one-year average and 0.22 percentage points below the long-run average, indicating a historically poor performance.

Argentina GDP Growth -0.8% y-o-y (consensus -0.7%) in Q3-23

- Argentina's GDP growth recorded a decline of 0.8% year-on-year in Q3-23, showing a substantial improvement from the previous quarter's contraction of 5.0%.
- Despite this improvement, the growth rate remains slightly below the one-year average and the long-run average, indicating ongoing challenges for the Argentine economy.