Archive

December 03, 2025
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Activity Thaws Into Winter

  • The worst services PMIs thawed in November, broadening growth even as averages held steady. Activity in the US services ISM has trended up to exceed the PMI data now.
  • A slight fading of stagflationary pressures in the latest US surveys probably balances out in the Fed’s policy trade-off. We still fear that it is easing excessively.
  • Rising unemployment rates in the US and UK are concerns not experienced in most of the world. This theme feeds their recent divergence from the global surprise tendency.

By Philip Rush

November 20, 2025
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US: Resilient Into Shutdown

  • US payroll data revealed resilience going into the US government shutdown, with jobs growth the strongest since April and annualising to a pace capable of plateauing growth.
  • Surging labour force participation drove unemployment up in the least disappointing way, with the employment to population ratio making a contradictory improvement.
  • Jobless claims suggest stability into the shutdown’s end, besides noisy federal claims. The FOMC may not get the evidence it needs to cut again in December. It may not exist.

By Philip Rush

November 13, 2025
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UK: Return To Residual H2 Gloom

  • UK GDP disappointed in Q3 at 0.1% q-o-q after the ONS revised away August’s surprise resilience and led it into a slight September fall, setting up for a soft Q4 too.
  • Residual seasonality in service sector growth has reasserted itself on the average post-pandemic path. So statistical stories seem more plausible than fundamental ones.
  • Weakness in labour market activity is more relevant. The hawkish half of the MPC probably needs disinflationary news to support a cut, but the Governor seems swayed.

By Philip Rush

November 11, 2025
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UK: Jobless Embolden Bailey’s Cut

  • Another disappointing rise in the unemployment rate should embolden Bailey’s bias to cut rates in December. Falling net underemployment contradicts, but is easily ignored.
  • Another step down in payrolls, matched by employment this time, could be blamed on fears for the Budget. Redundancies also spiked, although vacancies are stable.
  • Headline pay growth is slowing as expected, while the monthly impulse remains excessively strong, so the hawks are unlikely to see inflation persistence as broken.

By Philip Rush

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