Archive

September 16, 2025
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UK Jobs Find Their Floor

  • Stability in unemployment at 4.66%, while payrolls only marginally decline, suggests the labour market has found its floor before disinflationary pressures accumulate.
  • A narrative-breaking improvement could occur next month. Tax rises structurally explain the scale of the previous shock, with weakness seemingly not going beyond that.
  • Excess supply is needed to break wage growth to a target-consistent trend. Without that, the MPC should hold rates before potentially reversing by raising them in 2026.

By Philip Rush

August 19, 2025
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EA: Re-Balance Of Payments

  • An end to the Euro’s bullish trend is now revealed to have coincided with a reversal of two critical supports. Frontloaded export levels have normalised without payback.
  • International portfolio investment into the EA during April fully unwound between May and June, revealing no investor appetite to hold higher allocations to EA assets.
  • The Euro is not benefiting from a structural shift towards it, so we doubt the bullish trend will resume. Belated payback in goods inventories could also eventually weigh.

By Philip Rush

August 14, 2025
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UK: Slowdown Softened In Q2

  • June’s remarkable rebound compounded the resilience revealed by April’s upwards revision, which also broke flimsy fundamental stories blaming tariffs for a slowdown.
  • IP no longer declined in April, but the broader growth profile still matches the residual seasonality that spuriously drives GDP dynamics in our forecast. H2 will be weaker.
  • The BoE discounts headline GDP volatility without blaming seasonality, so another surprisingly strong quarter will be hard for hawks to ignore, reducing the rate cut risk.

By Philip Rush

August 12, 2025
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UK Jobs Suggest Summer Stabilisation

  • Unemployment broke a four-month streak of increases at 4.66%, with favourable cohort effects risking a fall soon. Payrolls may also be revised to grow again from July.
  • The structural hit from tax increases is matched by the cumulative fall in payrolls so far. Fundamental explanations for its divergence from the LFS aren’t supported yet.
  • Ongoing resilience in wage growth stokes unit labour cost pressures alongside taxes that are beyond the target. We still expect the MPC to resist cutting rates again.

By Philip Rush

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