Archive

March 18, 2025
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UK Inflation Excess Survives Reweighting

  • Updated inflation basket weightings can shift the inflation outlook without any new fundamental shock. The seasonal and trend outlook is unaffected by the 2025 update.
  • Although our forecast is broadly unchanged, this still mitigates the risk that reduced weights on energy and sanitation utilities dampen the surge in April and July forecasts.
  • This outcome further emboldens our confidence in our above-consensus forecast. We also note that the average import intensity is now weighted near historic lows.

By Philip Rush

March 05, 2025
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US vs EU Part 4: Orwell That Ends Badly

  • Amid all the transatlantic rumpus over Russia/Ukraine last week, of more significance to markets is Donald Trump’s 27 February threat to impose 25 percent tariffs on all European imports. The UK should not assume it is immune to this despite Keir Starmer playing the ‘king’s gambit’.

By Alastair Newton

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