Archive

July 14, 2025
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Tuning Tariff Impact Estimates

  • President Trump’s tariff policy seemingly follows a random walk with a drift towards deals. Path dependency raises risks and uncertainty around his volatile whims.
  • Corporate avoidance measures have spared their customers from most of the pain, but Vietnam’s deal as a template could belatedly bring more of the pain to bear.
  • We assume most countries stay at 10%. The impact of others rising to 20% may be smaller than the anti-avoidance hit, with the total now worth less than 0.4% to UK GDP.

By Philip Rush

July 09, 2025
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Labour’s Collapsing Credibility

  • Labour failed to campaign on a platform up to the UK’s structural problems, depriving it of the support to deliver change in its first year. Reform UK now lead most polls.
  • Spending cut U-turns compound the fiscal hole exposed by the slippage of optimistic assumptions, making further tax hikes and more persistent deficits seem inevitable.
  • Far-centrism has been rejected, but challenges to Labour’s right and left break its ability to triangulate back towards success. Investors may not stay so forgiving.

By Philip Rush

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