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HEM: Better Never Than Late

• Companies are smoothing out volatile trade policies
• Activity remains strong and labour markets are tight
• Underlying price and wage inflation is still too high
• Markets expect cuts to resume later, contrary to history
• The risk of rate hikes in 2026 is widely underappreciated

Underlying GDP Trends Unbroken

• Imports frontloaded before tariff rises seemingly disappeared in broadly unrevised US GDP data. Underperformance is exaggerated as an unwind, or revisions, are likely in Q2.
• Final domestic private sales maintained their rudely bullish US trend while drifting back towards stagnation in the EA and are distorted by residual seasonality in the UK.
• Superior US productivity trends preserve its structural attractiveness. Unemployment’s stability also suggests monetary conditions are near neutral, with easing unnecessary.

By Philip Rush

PMI Goods Vibes

• Broad improvements in the flash manufacturing PMIs demonstrate ongoing resilience relative to consumers’ bad vibes. Goods trade seemingly shrugged off the tariff shock.
• The UK was alone in weakening, but it is more susceptible to bad vibes, showing more noise than signal. April’s spurious lows were revised away and may repeat or rebound.
• Transmission to unemployment also isn’t happening, leaving little case for easing unless recessionary pressures build, and the PMIs still hawkishly suggest that isn’t the case.

By Philip Rush

UK Inflation Flies Hawkish Pressures

• Our above-consensus forecast was exceeded by UK inflation flying higher in April amid administered price rises and postponed price increases due to the late Easter in 2025.
• Airfares still soared 10pp more than the norm for a late Easter, and 20pp above the April average. This stoked service and core inflation, although the median was steadier.
• We expect inflation to grind up until October, whereas the consensus assumes stability until then. Persistently excessive inflation should discourage the BoE from cutting again.

By Philip Rush