August 03, 2022
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EA: Solidarity Comes Second

  • Italy’s right-wing parties should note that what Germans widely perceive as a lack of EU solidarity in last week’s gas deal will likely spill over into Berlin’s demands for stiff conditionality attached to support from the ECB’s Debt Transmission Instrument.

By Alastair Newton

July 25, 2022
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Italy: Et Tu, Brute?

  • Some experts believe that Mario Draghi sprung “a trap” last week. However, if what I see as a coincidence of circumstances did indeed create a trap of some sort, the 25 September general election may reveal it to be one into which Matteo Salvini, rather than Mr Draghi, has stepped.

By Alastair Newton

July 22, 2022
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Surveys Screeching Toward Recession

  • Global manufacturing is trending towards contractions, with the Euro area now leading the way for the worse. At least price pressures are easing in the process.
  • Services are also being increasingly smashed, proportional to accelerated policy tightening, with the US indicated as contracting, and the EA on the cusp of joining it.
  • Survey-based measures of activity don’t always move with the hard data. However, broad trend shifts tend to be shared signals rather than noise, so they need respect.

By Philip Rush