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August 14, 2025
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Norway: Holds Steady on Easing Path In August

  • Norges Bank unsurprisingly held rates at 4.25% as expected, maintaining a restrictive stance while inflation persists above 2% target.
  • The central bank signals 1-2 more cuts as likely in 2025 if the economy evolves as projected, with a September reduction widely anticipated by markets.
  • Trade policy uncertainty and sticky services inflation create upside risks, but the gradual normalisation path remains intact barring shocks.
June 19, 2025
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Norway: 25bp Rate Cut To 4.25% (Consensus 4.5%) in Jun-25

  • The Norges Bank unexpectedly reduced its policy rate to 4.25%, defying consensus expectations for a hold, citing a faster-than-anticipated decline in underlying inflation and increased economic slack.
  • The Committee signalled that, if the economy develops as projected, further gradual rate cuts are likely in 2025, but emphasised that policy will remain restrictive until inflation is sustainably on target.
  • Future rate decisions will be highly data-dependent, with the Committee closely monitoring domestic wage and price dynamics, labour market conditions, and external risks such as geopolitical tensions and global trade policy uncertainty.
May 08, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in May-25

  • The Norges Bank held its policy rate at 4.5% in May, consistent with consensus and March guidance, citing persistent inflation and heightened global uncertainty as reasons to maintain a restrictive stance.
  • Although inflation has eased, underlying pressures remain strong, with CPI-ATE stable at 3.4% and a weaker krone raising imported goods prices, complicating the timing of future easing.
  • The Committee continues to signal a likely rate cut in 2025 but flagged increased trade barriers and divergent global developments as factors that could shift the policy trajectory in either direction.
March 27, 2025
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Norway: Rates Held At 4.5% (Consensus 4.5%) in Mar-25

  • The Norges Bank held the policy rate at 4.5%, consistent with expectations, as inflation accelerated to 3.6% in February, well above prior forecasts, prompting delays in the signalled rate cuts.
  • Strong wage growth, broad-based price pressures, and resilient domestic activity led the Committee to judge that a restrictive policy stance remains warranted for longer.
  • The policy rate is now projected to fall to 4.0% by year-end, but heightened uncertainty around inflation and global trade developments will shape the timing and extent of future easing.

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