Archive

Oil: An Unsustainable Uptick?

• The Opec secretariat’s bullish July forecast for oil demand is an outrider relative to the industry near-consensus, which is closer to the assessment of the International Energy Agency. Therefore, the recent uptick in the price of Brent crude should be treated with caution.

By Alastair Newton

Qatar CPI Inflation 1.59% m-o-m in Dec-23

- Qatar's CPI inflation experienced a notable increase in December 2023, reaching 1.59% compared to the previous month's rate of 0.16%.
- Although significantly higher than the one-year average, it is not much higher than last Dec-22, so the annual rate only increased by a few tenths to 1.65%.

Outlook 2024: Lower For Longer Redux

• With non-Opec+ output likely to exceed consumption growth, the cartel will struggle to keep Brent above USD80pb even in the event of something close to consensus economic growth in China and a probable soft landing in the US. My forecast for 31 December is USD70pb.

By Alastair Newton

Qatar CPI Inflation 0.16% m-o-m in Nov-23

- Qatar's CPI inflation increased by 0.16% month-on-month in November 2023, marking the lowest growth rate since August 2023 and smashing the annual rate 1.2pp lower to 1.3% y-o-y.
- Despite being 0.11 percentage points above the one-year average, it remains 0.17 percentage points below the long-run average, indicating a relatively subdued inflationary environment.