October 29, 2025
          
                  
        
             
                
                                    
                                    
            Credit For Inflation
- Credit and monetary holdings are booming in the UK, enabling consumers to spend their devalued pounds, supporting CPI inflation beyond the target.
- Falling rates have neutered the refinancing shock, facilitating the affordability of loan demand. Rapid ongoing wage growth further reduces the debt burden.
- The ECB also sees bullish monetary trends, but they only took it to a good place. The BoE is not in a good place, with policy accommodating above-target inflation pressures.
By Philip Rush
October 22, 2025
          
                  
        
             
                
                                    
                                    
            UK CPI Trips Into The Fall
- UK inflation’s march higher ended early as expectations tripped over a drop in airfares to slow slightly in September, ahead of slightly falling back through the Fall seasonal.
- Weakness elsewhere cut the annualised median rate below 2% for the first time since March. That is likely to be a small soft spot relative to the worrying cumulative upside.
- Our forecasts remain close to or below the consensus until June, after other forecasts rose in last month’s survey. We still see wages stoking an excessive underlying trend.
By Philip Rush
October 16, 2025
          
                  
        
             
                
                                    
                                    
            UK: Unseasonably Resilient In Q3
- Slight growth in August sustains an above trend level of activity and is tracking to a 0.2% q-o-q pace for Q3, matching our forecast and the consensus, but disappointing the BoE.
- The ongoing slowdown in service sector activity repeats residual seasonality that would leave a trough in two months, but there is slightly more resilience this year.
- Policymakers shouldn’t react to statistical noise, and are unlikely to amid ongoing excesses in underlying inflation that a stabilising labour market wouldn’t break.
By Philip Rush
October 14, 2025
          
                  
        
             
                
                                    
                                    
            UK: Mixed Messages On Labour Market
- Most narratives can find some support in the latest labour market report, preserving uncertainty that should keep the BoE on hold at least until some clarity emerges.
- Unemployment has increased (LFS) or stabilised (payrolls), while pay is shockingly resurgent (inc-bonuses), slowing as expected (ex-bonus) or stagnating (private pay).
- Weakness isn’t as clear as the consensus and press sometimes make out, but concerns aren’t invalidated. We still expect resilience to preserve excess inflation hawkishly.
By Philip Rush
By type
- 
                    Inflation
 
- 
                    Politics
 
- 
                    Monetary Policy
 
- 
                    Activity
 

 UK
 UK US
 US Euro Area
 Euro Area Japan
 Japan Canada
 Canada Switzerland
 Switzerland Norway
 Norway Sweden
 Sweden Australia
 Australia New Zealand
 New Zealand China
 China Korea
 Korea Indonesia
 Indonesia Malaysia
 Malaysia Philippines
 Philippines Singapore
 Singapore Thailand
 Thailand Vietnam
 Vietnam Argentina
 Argentina Brazil
 Brazil Colombia
 Colombia Chile
 Chile Mexico
 Mexico Peru
 Peru