April 10, 2024
US CPI Inflation 3.48% y-o-y (consensus 3.4%) in Mar-24
- US CPI inflation in March 2024 increased to 3.48% y-o-y, exceeding the consensus forecast again, pointing to a more persistent inflation problem.
- Core CPI inflation also surprised on the upside by remaining at 3.8% y-o-y on a 0.4% m-o-m increase in March 2024.
April 03, 2024
EA Services Don’t Dis-inflate for Doves
- EA inflation reversed its previous upside surprise to print down at 2.44% in March. Core inflation was 2bps softer at 2.946% amid non-energy industrial goods price weakness.
- Services inflation once again surprised on the upside by refusing to budge from 4% for the fifth consecutive month despite potential Olympic-related weakness in France.
- The ECB can welcome headline disinflation, but without seeing a slowing in services inflation, we still believe it will not be convinced to start cutting interest rates.
By Philip Rush
March 20, 2024
UK: Sticky Services Persist in Feb-24
- UK CPI inflation slowed 0.1pp further than expected to 3.4% in February amid soft goods prices, but services prices were strong again by only easing to 6.1%.
- Underlying inflation pressures remain sticky, with the median inflationary impulse stuck close to 3%. These data remain inconsistent with a sustainable return to the 2% target.
- Proximity to the target relies upon the temporary drag from falling energy prices and is not a reason to cut. Wage growth is too high, fuelling resilience that postpones cuts.
By Philip Rush
March 19, 2024
Canada CPI Inflation 2.78% y-o-y (consensus 3.1%) in Feb-24
- Canada's CPI inflation rate in February 2024 was 2.78% y-o-y, defying the consensus expectations for a rise to 3.1%.
- Underlying measures of inflation also slowed, indicating a relatively subdued inflationary environment.
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